Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their May 2026 Beijing summit, has reinforced trader consensus against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 by prioritizing managed rivalry and stability over confrontation. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 highlighted Beijing’s lack of fixed invasion timelines for Taiwan and shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army readiness for large-scale operations, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has further constrained American resources and focus. Both sides continue bilateral talks on trade, technology, and regional issues, with recent arms sales discussions to Taiwan occurring alongside calls for prudence on cross-strait matters. Absent major new escalations such as intensified exercises or territorial incidents in the past month, these factors sustain the 94% implied probability that deterrence and negotiation will hold through the end of 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$113,155 거래량
$113,155 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$113,155 거래량
$113,155 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their May 2026 Beijing summit, has reinforced trader consensus against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 by prioritizing managed rivalry and stability over confrontation. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 highlighted Beijing’s lack of fixed invasion timelines for Taiwan and shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army readiness for large-scale operations, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has further constrained American resources and focus. Both sides continue bilateral talks on trade, technology, and regional issues, with recent arms sales discussions to Taiwan occurring alongside calls for prudence on cross-strait matters. Absent major new escalations such as intensified exercises or territorial incidents in the past month, these factors sustain the 94% implied probability that deterrence and negotiation will hold through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
거래량
$113,155종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their May 2026 Beijing summit, has reinforced trader consensus against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 by prioritizing managed rivalry and stability over confrontation. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 highlighted Beijing’s lack of fixed invasion timelines for Taiwan and shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army readiness for large-scale operations, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has further constrained American resources and focus. Both sides continue bilateral talks on trade, technology, and regional issues, with recent arms sales discussions to Taiwan occurring alongside calls for prudence on cross-strait matters. Absent major new escalations such as intensified exercises or territorial incidents in the past month, these factors sustain the 94% implied probability that deterrence and negotiation will hold through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$113,155종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their May 2026 Beijing summit, has reinforced trader consensus against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027 by prioritizing managed rivalry and stability over confrontation. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 highlighted Beijing’s lack of fixed invasion timelines for Taiwan and shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army readiness for large-scale operations, while the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has further constrained American resources and focus. Both sides continue bilateral talks on trade, technology, and regional issues, with recent arms sales discussions to Taiwan occurring alongside calls for prudence on cross-strait matters. Absent major new escalations such as intensified exercises or territorial incidents in the past month, these factors sustain the 94% implied probability that deterrence and negotiation will hold through the end of 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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