Recent high-level diplomatic engagement, including a May 2026 meeting in Havana between the CIA director and Cuban interior officials, has reinforced trader views that direct U.S.-Cuba military confrontation remains unlikely this year. Despite presidential statements referencing potential action and increased U.S. sanctions targeting regime elites amid Cuba's energy crisis, officials have emphasized no imminent strikes while pursuing talks on security and economic reforms. Senate caution over stretched military resources from other commitments further supports the 59.5% probability assigned to no clash, reflecting a consensus that economic pressure and back-channel diplomacy currently outweigh escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$109,376 거래량
$109,376 거래량
2026.12.31
$109,376 거래량
$109,376 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomatic engagement, including a May 2026 meeting in Havana between the CIA director and Cuban interior officials, has reinforced trader views that direct U.S.-Cuba military confrontation remains unlikely this year. Despite presidential statements referencing potential action and increased U.S. sanctions targeting regime elites amid Cuba's energy crisis, officials have emphasized no imminent strikes while pursuing talks on security and economic reforms. Senate caution over stretched military resources from other commitments further supports the 59.5% probability assigned to no clash, reflecting a consensus that economic pressure and back-channel diplomacy currently outweigh escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
거래량
$109,376종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomatic engagement, including a May 2026 meeting in Havana between the CIA director and Cuban interior officials, has reinforced trader views that direct U.S.-Cuba military confrontation remains unlikely this year. Despite presidential statements referencing potential action and increased U.S. sanctions targeting regime elites amid Cuba's energy crisis, officials have emphasized no imminent strikes while pursuing talks on security and economic reforms. Senate caution over stretched military resources from other commitments further supports the 59.5% probability assigned to no clash, reflecting a consensus that economic pressure and back-channel diplomacy currently outweigh escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$109,376종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level diplomatic engagement, including a May 2026 meeting in Havana between the CIA director and Cuban interior officials, has reinforced trader views that direct U.S.-Cuba military confrontation remains unlikely this year. Despite presidential statements referencing potential action and increased U.S. sanctions targeting regime elites amid Cuba's energy crisis, officials have emphasized no imminent strikes while pursuing talks on security and economic reforms. Senate caution over stretched military resources from other commitments further supports the 59.5% probability assigned to no clash, reflecting a consensus that economic pressure and back-channel diplomacy currently outweigh escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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