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선거·트럼프

NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자

icon for NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자
선거·트럼프

NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자

알렉스 보어스 45%

Micah Lasher 45%

잭 슐로스버그 14%

카메론 캐스키 <1%

Polymarket

$363,225 거래량

알렉스 보어스 45%

Micah Lasher 45%

잭 슐로스버그 14%

카메론 캐스키 <1%

Polymarket

$363,225 거래량

알렉스 보어스

$8,315 거래량

45%

Micah Lasher

$17,268 거래량

45%

잭 슐로스버그

$12,167 거래량

14%

카메론 캐스키

$5,967 거래량

<1%

Keith Powers

$6,124 거래량

<1%

리즈 크루거

$58,696 거래량

<1%

에릭 보처

$4,521 거래량

<1%

캐롤린 말로니

$4,774 거래량

<1%

브래드 호일만-시갈

$7,418 거래량

<1%

게일 브루어

$4,244 거래량

<1%

브래드 랜더

$80,895 거래량

<1%

리나 칸

$41,371 거래량

<1%

줄리 메닌

$25,361 거래량

<1%

첼시 클린턴

$10,172 거래량

<1%

Liam Elkind

$4,367 거래량

<1%

스콧 스트링거

$58,778 거래량

<1%

앤드루 쿠오모

$4,821 거래량

<1%

신시아 닉슨

$4,304 거래량

<1%

조지 콘웨이

$3,664 거래량

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The tight contest in New York’s 12th Congressional District Democratic primary stems from the head-to-head positioning of state Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher following Rep. Jerry Nadler’s retirement. Bores has secured major labor endorsements and highlighted his AI regulation work, drawing both support and independent expenditures against him, while Lasher benefits from Nadler’s early backing, Governor Hochul’s endorsement, and recent success clearing a competing candidate from the ballot. High-name-recognition challengers such as Jack Schlossberg add visibility but have not consolidated support. Trader consensus at roughly 45 percent for Bores and 44.5 percent for Lasher reflects this balanced dynamic ahead of the June 23 primary, with further separation likely to hinge on turnout in Manhattan neighborhoods, additional union or party support, and the impact of outside spending in the final weeks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$363,225
종료일
2026.06.23
마켓 개설일
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The tight contest in New York’s 12th Congressional District Democratic primary stems from the head-to-head positioning of state Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher following Rep. Jerry Nadler’s retirement. Bores has secured major labor endorsements and highlighted his AI regulation work, drawing both support and independent expenditures against him, while Lasher benefits from Nadler’s early backing, Governor Hochul’s endorsement, and recent success clearing a competing candidate from the ballot. High-name-recognition challengers such as Jack Schlossberg add visibility but have not consolidated support. Trader consensus at roughly 45 percent for Bores and 44.5 percent for Lasher reflects this balanced dynamic ahead of the June 23 primary, with further separation likely to hinge on turnout in Manhattan neighborhoods, additional union or party support, and the impact of outside spending in the final weeks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$363,225
종료일
2026.06.23
마켓 개설일
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자"은 19개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 45%의 "알렉스 보어스"이며, 이어서 45%의 "Micah Lasher"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 45¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 45%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자"은 총 $363.2K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Nov 21, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 19개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자"의 현재 유력 후보는 45%의 "알렉스 보어스"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 45%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 45%의 "Micah Lasher"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"NY-12 민주당 1차 당선자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.