The Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District on June 23 remains tightly contested between Assemblymember Alex Bores and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, whose near-even implied probabilities reflect divided voter coalitions across Manhattan’s East and West Sides. Nadler’s February endorsement of Lasher as his successor has bolstered the Upper West Side lawmaker’s organization and union backing, while Bores has secured stronger labor endorsements and attracted significant outside spending tied to his AI-regulation legislation. Recent polling shows the three leading candidates statistically tied, with Jack Schlossberg drawing name recognition but limited ground support. Upcoming candidate forums and ballot-access resolutions could further separate the frontrunners by clarifying turnout patterns in a low-information primary environment.