Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,991,724 거래량
$19,991,724 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$19,991,724 거래량
$19,991,724 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
거래량
$19,991,724종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$19,991,724종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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