Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$169,764,571 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh 41%

Kevin Hassett 41%

Christopher Waller 8.5%

Rick Rieder 3.3%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh
$4,554,007 Vol.
41%

Kevin Hassett
$8,730,362 Vol.
41%

Christopher Waller
$3,676,935 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$2,892,863 Vol.
3%

Scott Bessent
$4,030,096 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,421,487 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,179,780 Vol.
1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,143,930 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$3,320,106 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,647,665 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$2,764,710 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,027,617 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,336,661 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$20,738,840 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,478,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,860,165 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,634,729 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,835,542 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,592,905 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,959,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,549,889 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,570,840 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,274,042 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,131,336 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,407,576 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$169,764,571

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$169,764,571 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 41%

Kevin Hassett 41%

Christopher Waller 8.5%

Rick Rieder 3.3%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh

$4,554,007 Vol.

41%

Kevin Hassett

$8,730,362 Vol.

41%

Christopher Waller

$3,676,935 Vol.

Rick Rieder

$2,892,863 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$4,030,096 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$3,421,487 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$4,179,780 Vol.

No one nominated before 2027

$2,143,930 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$3,320,106 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,647,665 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$2,764,710 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$4,027,617 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$2,336,661 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$20,738,840 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$9,478,154 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,860,165 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$4,634,729 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,835,542 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,592,905 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,959,330 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$4,549,889 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$20,570,840 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,274,042 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$18,131,336 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$22,407,576 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$169,764,571

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 19, 2026?

21%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

11%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
$4,554,007 Vol.
41%

Kevin Hassett
$8,730,362 Vol.
41%

Christopher Waller
$3,676,935 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$2,892,863 Vol.
3%

Scott Bessent
$4,030,096 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,421,487 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,179,780 Vol.
1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,143,930 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$3,320,106 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,647,665 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$2,764,710 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,027,617 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,336,661 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$20,738,840 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,478,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,860,165 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,634,729 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,835,542 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,592,905 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,959,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,549,889 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,570,840 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,274,042 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,131,336 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,407,576 Vol.
<1%

Market Context