Traders assign a 74% implied probability to Anthropic achieving a $1.25–1.50 trillion valuation by end-September 2026, reflecting broad consensus on the company’s rapid revenue scaling, expanding enterprise adoption of its Claude models, and favorable positioning within the AI infrastructure boom. This pricing incorporates recent capital inflows, margin expansion from cloud partnerships, and sector multiples that have compressed less than peers amid sustained demand for frontier AI capabilities. Key near-term catalysts include any final-quarter funding announcements or product milestones that could confirm or shift these levels before resolution. Market-implied odds for lower bands remain modest, underscoring limited expectation of near-term valuation compression despite broader tech volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$1.25-$1.50T 74%
$2.25T+ 8.9%
$2.00-$2.25T 6.9%
$1.50-$1.75T 7%
<$500B
13%
$500-$750B
8%
$750B-$1.00T
5%
$1.00-$1.25T
12%
$1.25-$1.50T
74%
$1.50-$1.75T
7%
$1.75-$2.00T
11%
$2.00-$2.25T
7%
$2.25T+
9%
$1.25-$1.50T 74%
$2.25T+ 8.9%
$2.00-$2.25T 6.9%
$1.50-$1.75T 7%
<$500B
13%
$500-$750B
8%
$750B-$1.00T
5%
$1.00-$1.25T
12%
$1.25-$1.50T
74%
$1.50-$1.75T
7%
$1.75-$2.00T
11%
$2.00-$2.25T
7%
$2.25T+
9%
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/dataRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/dataRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 74% implied probability to Anthropic achieving a $1.25–1.50 trillion valuation by end-September 2026, reflecting broad consensus on the company’s rapid revenue scaling, expanding enterprise adoption of its Claude models, and favorable positioning within the AI infrastructure boom. This pricing incorporates recent capital inflows, margin expansion from cloud partnerships, and sector multiples that have compressed less than peers amid sustained demand for frontier AI capabilities. Key near-term catalysts include any final-quarter funding announcements or product milestones that could confirm or shift these levels before resolution. Market-implied odds for lower bands remain modest, underscoring limited expectation of near-term valuation compression despite broader tech volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano

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