Morena holds a commanding position in Baja California state politics ahead of the June 2027 congressional election, where voters will renew all 25 seats through a mix of single-member districts and proportional representation. The party currently controls the majority in the sitting legislature and benefits from the state governorship plus national polling leads exceeding 20 points over main rivals. Early organizational steps, including appointment of state and district coordinators, have reinforced its structural edge. Other parties such as PVEM, MC, PAN, PT, and PRI trail sharply in implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent gains and weaker local organization. The race remains early in the cycle, with candidate registration not scheduled until spring 2027.