Canada's population decline at the start of 2026, confirmed by Statistics Canada data released March 18 showing a 0.2% drop to 41.47 million as of January 1 amid falling non-permanent residents, anchors trader consensus for a full-year downturn. Federal Immigration Levels Plan announced November 2025 caps new permanent residents at 380,000 and temporary arrivals at 385,000—sharp reductions from prior years to address housing pressures—while Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or zero growth through 2026. Low natural increase from births trailing deaths, combined with non-renewals and outflows, sustains the 61% implied probability on "Down," though upcoming quarterly estimates could shift sentiment if net migration rebounds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUp
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 30, 2027
Up
NOWE
NOWE
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's population decline at the start of 2026, confirmed by Statistics Canada data released March 18 showing a 0.2% drop to 41.47 million as of January 1 amid falling non-permanent residents, anchors trader consensus for a full-year downturn. Federal Immigration Levels Plan announced November 2025 caps new permanent residents at 380,000 and temporary arrivals at 385,000—sharp reductions from prior years to address housing pressures—while Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or zero growth through 2026. Low natural increase from births trailing deaths, combined with non-renewals and outflows, sustains the 61% implied probability on "Down," though upcoming quarterly estimates could shift sentiment if net migration rebounds.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,488Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's population decline at the start of 2026, confirmed by Statistics Canada data released March 18 showing a 0.2% drop to 41.47 million as of January 1 amid falling non-permanent residents, anchors trader consensus for a full-year downturn. Federal Immigration Levels Plan announced November 2025 caps new permanent residents at 380,000 and temporary arrivals at 385,000—sharp reductions from prior years to address housing pressures—while Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or zero growth through 2026. Low natural increase from births trailing deaths, combined with non-renewals and outflows, sustains the 61% implied probability on "Down," though upcoming quarterly estimates could shift sentiment if net migration rebounds.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,488Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's population decline at the start of 2026, confirmed by Statistics Canada data released March 18 showing a 0.2% drop to 41.47 million as of January 1 amid falling non-permanent residents, anchors trader consensus for a full-year downturn. Federal Immigration Levels Plan announced November 2025 caps new permanent residents at 380,000 and temporary arrivals at 385,000—sharp reductions from prior years to address housing pressures—while Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or zero growth through 2026. Low natural increase from births trailing deaths, combined with non-renewals and outflows, sustains the 61% implied probability on "Down," though upcoming quarterly estimates could shift sentiment if net migration rebounds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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