Canada’s monthly GDP for August 2026 is tracking toward a 0.2% month-over-month increase according to Statistics Canada’s advance estimate released September 29, aligning with the market’s leading 0.2–0.3% outcome at 52% implied probability. The flash reading reflects gains in mining and quarrying plus retail trade that outweighed weakness in oil and gas extraction, following a flat July print and three prior months of expansion. This places third-quarter growth on pace for roughly 1.8–2.0% annualized, moderating from the 3.3% second-quarter surge driven by exports and domestic demand. Key risks include the impact of new U.S. tariffs imposed in late August and the full August data due October 30, which could revise the preliminary figure and shift trader positioning around the 0.0–0.1% bucket currently at 30.5%.