Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity positions the 160-179 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, reflecting his established baseline cadence of roughly 20-25 posts per day during non-event weeks. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch records, an all-hands update on AI revenue surpassing other segments, and routine company commentary have sustained steady engagement without triggering the viral spikes or controversies that historically push weekly totals above 200. The market’s tight clustering around mid-range brackets underscores the absence of major catalysts through mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes above 220 remain discounted absent sudden breaking developments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano160-179 59%
180-199 26%
140-159 11.3%
200-219 3.6%
$1,831,460 Wol.
$1,831,460 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
140-159
11%
160-179
59%
180-199
26%
200-219
4%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 59%
180-199 26%
140-159 11.3%
200-219 3.6%
$1,831,460 Wol.
$1,831,460 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
140-159
$271,825 Wol.
11%
160-179
$155,518 Wol.
59%
180-199
$120,108 Wol.
26%
200-219
$106,598 Wol.
4%
220-239
$95,770 Wol.
1%
240-259
$127,546 Wol.
<1%
260-279
$107,908 Wol.
<1%
280-299
$91,008 Wol.
<1%
300-319
$83,049 Wol.
<1%
320-339
$43,368 Wol.
<1%
340-359
$42,323 Wol.
<1%
360-379
$29,969 Wol.
<1%
380-399
$25,087 Wol.
<1%
400-419
$22,118 Wol.
<1%
420-439
$15,300 Wol.
<1%
440-459
$15,044 Wol.
<1%
460-479
$6,196 Wol.
<1%
480-499
$5,696 Wol.
<1%
500+
$43,869 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity positions the 160-179 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, reflecting his established baseline cadence of roughly 20-25 posts per day during non-event weeks. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch records, an all-hands update on AI revenue surpassing other segments, and routine company commentary have sustained steady engagement without triggering the viral spikes or controversies that historically push weekly totals above 200. The market’s tight clustering around mid-range brackets underscores the absence of major catalysts through mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes above 220 remain discounted absent sudden breaking developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,831,460Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity positions the 160-179 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, reflecting his established baseline cadence of roughly 20-25 posts per day during non-event weeks. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch records, an all-hands update on AI revenue surpassing other segments, and routine company commentary have sustained steady engagement without triggering the viral spikes or controversies that historically push weekly totals above 200. The market’s tight clustering around mid-range brackets underscores the absence of major catalysts through mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes above 220 remain discounted absent sudden breaking developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Wolumen
$1,831,460Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity positions the 160-179 tweet range as the clear frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability, reflecting his established baseline cadence of roughly 20-25 posts per day during non-event weeks. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch records, an all-hands update on AI revenue surpassing other segments, and routine company commentary have sustained steady engagement without triggering the viral spikes or controversies that historically push weekly totals above 200. The market’s tight clustering around mid-range brackets underscores the absence of major catalysts through mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes above 220 remain discounted absent sudden breaking developments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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