Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a partisan voting index of R+5. Bean's 2024 victory margin of 14.6 points and superior fundraising—$1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—bolster trader consensus at 80.5% for Republicans ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. The Democratic primary features four candidates, led by Michael Kirwan with $511,000 raised, but the field remains fragmented and underfunded compared to Bean, who faces only token GOP opposition from Anthony Valerio. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, underscoring the district's reliable Republican path to victory in the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$11,781 Wol.
$11,781 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
20%
$11,781 Wol.
$11,781 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,745 Wol.
81%
Democratic Party
$5,036 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a partisan voting index of R+5. Bean's 2024 victory margin of 14.6 points and superior fundraising—$1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—bolster trader consensus at 80.5% for Republicans ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. The Democratic primary features four candidates, led by Michael Kirwan with $511,000 raised, but the field remains fragmented and underfunded compared to Bean, who faces only token GOP opposition from Anthony Valerio. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, underscoring the district's reliable Republican path to victory in the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Wolumen
$11,781Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a partisan voting index of R+5. Bean's 2024 victory margin of 14.6 points and superior fundraising—$1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—bolster trader consensus at 80.5% for Republicans ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. The Democratic primary features four candidates, led by Michael Kirwan with $511,000 raised, but the field remains fragmented and underfunded compared to Bean, who faces only token GOP opposition from Anthony Valerio. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, underscoring the district's reliable Republican path to victory in the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$11,781Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a partisan voting index of R+5. Bean's 2024 victory margin of 14.6 points and superior fundraising—$1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March—bolster trader consensus at 80.5% for Republicans ahead of the August 18 closed primaries. The Democratic primary features four candidates, led by Michael Kirwan with $511,000 raised, but the field remains fragmented and underfunded compared to Bean, who faces only token GOP opposition from Anthony Valerio. No major developments have shifted dynamics in recent weeks, underscoring the district's reliable Republican path to victory in the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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