Marine Le Pen leads the first-round market at 84.5% as recent polling aggregates place her at 34–37% nationally, well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon near 17% and trailing centrists such as Édouard Philippe or Raphaël Glucksmann. Her October campaign launch at the Rassemblement National congress, combined with ongoing cost-of-living protests and centrist infighting, has reinforced this positioning ahead of the April 2027 vote. Trader consensus reflects sustained survey leads and the structural advantage of a fragmented field that limits any single rival’s ability to overtake her. Low prices for other listed candidates align with their single-digit or low-teens polling shares and the absence of recent momentum shifts capable of closing the gap before the first-round ballot.