Recent forecast consensus from major models including ECMWF and UK Met Office points to a daytime maximum of 12–13°C in Buenos Aires on August 24, 2026, under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. This aligns closely with trader-implied probabilities favoring those bins, as late-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere typically feature mild highs averaging 15–17°C historically yet allow short-term cooling from transient high-pressure systems and reduced insolation. Recent model runs show stable guidance with no major shifts in the past 48 hours, though minor uncertainty remains from exact timing of peak temperatures, urban heat effects, and wind patterns. El Niño conditions may support slightly above-normal seasonal temperatures, but single-day variability from regional pressure setups currently dominates market sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s official observations.