Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid highs of 27–29°C on August 25, aligning with the market's top implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Late-August seasonal cooling—daily highs typically declining from early-month peaks near 32°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate Atlantic flow is limiting intensification. Ensemble models show limited spread around these values, with low chances of exceeding 30°C absent unexpected warm advection. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours from national meteorological services will likely refine the precise maximum and confirm whether conditions trend toward the 28°C or 29°C threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
28°C 44%
29°C 27%
27°C 19%
30°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
19%
28°C
44%
29°C
27%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
28°C 44%
29°C 27%
27°C 19%
30°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
$70 Wol.
1%
25°C
$5 Wol.
1%
26°C
$5 Wol.
5%
27°C
$175 Wol.
19%
28°C
$94 Wol.
44%
29°C
$124 Wol.
27%
30°C
$18 Wol.
6%
31°C
$20 Wol.
2%
32°C
$6 Wol.
3%
33°C
$5 Wol.
2%
34°C or higher
$120 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid highs of 27–29°C on August 25, aligning with the market's top implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Late-August seasonal cooling—daily highs typically declining from early-month peaks near 32°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate Atlantic flow is limiting intensification. Ensemble models show limited spread around these values, with low chances of exceeding 30°C absent unexpected warm advection. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours from national meteorological services will likely refine the precise maximum and confirm whether conditions trend toward the 28°C or 29°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$641Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid highs of 27–29°C on August 25, aligning with the market's top implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Late-August seasonal cooling—daily highs typically declining from early-month peaks near 32°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate Atlantic flow is limiting intensification. Ensemble models show limited spread around these values, with low chances of exceeding 30°C absent unexpected warm advection. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours from national meteorological services will likely refine the precise maximum and confirm whether conditions trend toward the 28°C or 29°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$641Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid highs of 27–29°C on August 25, aligning with the market's top implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Late-August seasonal cooling—daily highs typically declining from early-month peaks near 32°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate Atlantic flow is limiting intensification. Ensemble models show limited spread around these values, with low chances of exceeding 30°C absent unexpected warm advection. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours from national meteorological services will likely refine the precise maximum and confirm whether conditions trend toward the 28°C or 29°C threshold.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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