Recent National Environment Agency guidance highlights drier southwest monsoon conditions across the first half of August 2026, supporting daily maximum temperatures of 33–34 °C on most days with only localized short-duration thundery showers. These fair and occasionally windy patterns reduce cloud cover and enhance solar heating relative to the rainier July period, positioning 32–33 °C as the most probable outcomes for the 15 August peak. Official forecasts from the Meteorological Service Singapore and numerical models show high temperatures near 31–33 °C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 31 °C while allowing for brief afternoon convection that can cap extreme readings. Updated model runs and the next NEA fortnightly outlook will provide the clearest near-term signals for market resolution.