Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate a weather system will bring increased cloud cover, showers, and southwesterly winds to Warsaw on September 20, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 19–21°C. This shift from today's clearer, warmer conditions explains the market's strong preference for 21°C at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C and 20°C. Historical September highs average around 18–20°C, but current model consensus and observed pressure drops support the tight clustering around these outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing modest uncertainty from variable rainfall timing and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on official station measurements.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 20?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 20?
21°C 48%
22°C 25%
20°C 18%
19°C 5%
NOWE
$15,253 Wol.
NOWE
$15,253 Wol.
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
18%
21°C
48%
22°C
32%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 48%
22°C 25%
20°C 18%
19°C 5%
NOWE
$15,253 Wol.
NOWE
$15,253 Wol.
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$1,009 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$195 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$232 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$1,568 Wol.
5%
20°C
$2,386 Wol.
18%
21°C
$3,780 Wol.
48%
22°C
$4,854 Wol.
32%
23°C
$434 Wol.
1%
24°C
$213 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$360 Wol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$221 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate a weather system will bring increased cloud cover, showers, and southwesterly winds to Warsaw on September 20, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 19–21°C. This shift from today's clearer, warmer conditions explains the market's strong preference for 21°C at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C and 20°C. Historical September highs average around 18–20°C, but current model consensus and observed pressure drops support the tight clustering around these outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing modest uncertainty from variable rainfall timing and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on official station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$15,253Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate a weather system will bring increased cloud cover, showers, and southwesterly winds to Warsaw on September 20, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 19–21°C. This shift from today's clearer, warmer conditions explains the market's strong preference for 21°C at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C and 20°C. Historical September highs average around 18–20°C, but current model consensus and observed pressure drops support the tight clustering around these outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing modest uncertainty from variable rainfall timing and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on official station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$15,253Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate a weather system will bring increased cloud cover, showers, and southwesterly winds to Warsaw on September 20, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 19–21°C. This shift from today's clearer, warmer conditions explains the market's strong preference for 21°C at 48.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C and 20°C. Historical September highs average around 18–20°C, but current model consensus and observed pressure drops support the tight clustering around these outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing modest uncertainty from variable rainfall timing and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on official station measurements.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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