Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris on September 19 centered on 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and stable high pressure with negligible precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 25°C holding the highest share at 44.5% as the most probable single outcome. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, though minor variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. The forecast exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of about 21°C, consistent with broader late-summer warmth across western Europe, yet falls well short of September extremes. Updated model guidance and official Météo-France briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts for any probability shifts ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Paris on September 19?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 19?
25°C 44%
24°C 30%
26°C 15%
28°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
30%
25°C
44%
26°C
15%
27°C
7%
28°C
10%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 44%
24°C 30%
26°C 15%
28°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
$22 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$0 Wol.
2%
23°C
$22 Wol.
9%
24°C
$190 Wol.
30%
25°C
$79 Wol.
44%
26°C
$426 Wol.
15%
27°C
$22 Wol.
7%
28°C
$0 Wol.
10%
29°C
$5 Wol.
2%
30°C
$0 Wol.
2%
31°C or higher
$237 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris on September 19 centered on 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and stable high pressure with negligible precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 25°C holding the highest share at 44.5% as the most probable single outcome. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, though minor variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. The forecast exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of about 21°C, consistent with broader late-summer warmth across western Europe, yet falls well short of September extremes. Updated model guidance and official Météo-France briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts for any probability shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,004Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris on September 19 centered on 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and stable high pressure with negligible precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 25°C holding the highest share at 44.5% as the most probable single outcome. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, though minor variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. The forecast exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of about 21°C, consistent with broader late-summer warmth across western Europe, yet falls well short of September extremes. Updated model guidance and official Météo-France briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts for any probability shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,004Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs updated in the past 24 hours, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris on September 19 centered on 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and stable high pressure with negligible precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 25°C holding the highest share at 44.5% as the most probable single outcome. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the short lead time, though minor variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. The forecast exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of about 21°C, consistent with broader late-summer warmth across western Europe, yet falls well short of September extremes. Updated model guidance and official Météo-France briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts for any probability shifts ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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