**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS-aligned outlooks and regional models, indicate an overnight low in Chicago on September 19, 2026, centered in the low-to-mid 60s°F.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers and thunderstorms, and southeasterly flow advecting warm, humid air from the Gulf region are the dominant drivers suppressing radiational cooling. Dew points near 60–65°F further anchor minimum temperatures, limiting the potential for sharper drops even as the system begins to shift. These conditions align directly with the market’s leading buckets—62–63°F (50.0% implied probability) and 64–65°F (34.5%)—reflecting strong model consensus and historical precedent for elevated lows during similar late-summer storm setups. Weaker probabilities for 60–61°F or 66–67°F capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of clearing and wind shifts, while sub-60°F or 68°F+ outcomes remain low-probability tails given the current synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and any late-day convective trends will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Chicago on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 19?
66-67°F 51%
62-63°F 50%
64-65°F 40%
60-61°F 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
50%
64-65°F
34%
66-67°F
51%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 51%
62-63°F 50%
64-65°F 40%
60-61°F 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Wol.
1%
56-57°F
$0 Wol.
4%
58-59°F
$0 Wol.
7%
60-61°F
$51 Wol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Wol.
50%
64-65°F
$5 Wol.
34%
66-67°F
$0 Wol.
51%
68-69°F
$0 Wol.
11%
70-71°F
$0 Wol.
5%
72-73°F
$0 Wol.
1%
74°F or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS-aligned outlooks and regional models, indicate an overnight low in Chicago on September 19, 2026, centered in the low-to-mid 60s°F.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers and thunderstorms, and southeasterly flow advecting warm, humid air from the Gulf region are the dominant drivers suppressing radiational cooling. Dew points near 60–65°F further anchor minimum temperatures, limiting the potential for sharper drops even as the system begins to shift.
These conditions align directly with the market’s leading buckets—62–63°F (50.0% implied probability) and 64–65°F (34.5%)—reflecting strong model consensus and historical precedent for elevated lows during similar late-summer storm setups. Weaker probabilities for 60–61°F or 66–67°F capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of clearing and wind shifts, while sub-60°F or 68°F+ outcomes remain low-probability tails given the current synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and any late-day convective trends will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$56Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS-aligned outlooks and regional models, indicate an overnight low in Chicago on September 19, 2026, centered in the low-to-mid 60s°F.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers and thunderstorms, and southeasterly flow advecting warm, humid air from the Gulf region are the dominant drivers suppressing radiational cooling. Dew points near 60–65°F further anchor minimum temperatures, limiting the potential for sharper drops even as the system begins to shift.
These conditions align directly with the market’s leading buckets—62–63°F (50.0% implied probability) and 64–65°F (34.5%)—reflecting strong model consensus and historical precedent for elevated lows during similar late-summer storm setups. Weaker probabilities for 60–61°F or 66–67°F capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of clearing and wind shifts, while sub-60°F or 68°F+ outcomes remain low-probability tails given the current synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and any late-day convective trends will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$56Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 3:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including NWS-aligned outlooks and regional models, indicate an overnight low in Chicago on September 19, 2026, centered in the low-to-mid 60s°F.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers and thunderstorms, and southeasterly flow advecting warm, humid air from the Gulf region are the dominant drivers suppressing radiational cooling. Dew points near 60–65°F further anchor minimum temperatures, limiting the potential for sharper drops even as the system begins to shift. These conditions align directly with the market’s leading buckets—62–63°F (50.0% implied probability) and 64–65°F (34.5%)—reflecting strong model consensus and historical precedent for elevated lows during similar late-summer storm setups. Weaker probabilities for 60–61°F or 66–67°F capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of clearing and wind shifts, while sub-60°F or 68°F+ outcomes remain low-probability tails given the current synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and any late-day convective trends will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania