Recent GFS and ensemble model runs position the lowest temperature in Paris on September 19 near 13–14 °C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 13 °C at 43.5 % and 12 °C at 30 %. Mild southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies is expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minima several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.2 °C. Forecast guidance shows little spread among major models, with dew points and boundary-layer moisture supporting values in the 12–15 °C range rather than colder or significantly warmer extremes. Traders appear to weight these consensus projections heavily while assigning low probability to outliers below 11 °C or above 15 °C given stable synoptic conditions and the short lead time to resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 19?
13°C 45%
12°C 35%
11°C 18%
14°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
10°C or below
3%
11°C
18%
12°C
35%
13°C
45%
14°C
8%
15°C
4%
16°C
3%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
2%
13°C 45%
12°C 35%
11°C 18%
14°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
10°C or below
$10 Wol.
3%
11°C
$244 Wol.
18%
12°C
$458 Wol.
35%
13°C
$1,824 Wol.
45%
14°C
$256 Wol.
8%
15°C
$0 Wol.
4%
16°C
$0 Wol.
3%
17°C
$0 Wol.
2%
18°C
$0 Wol.
2%
19°C
$0 Wol.
2%
20°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble model runs position the lowest temperature in Paris on September 19 near 13–14 °C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 13 °C at 43.5 % and 12 °C at 30 %. Mild southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies is expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minima several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.2 °C. Forecast guidance shows little spread among major models, with dew points and boundary-layer moisture supporting values in the 12–15 °C range rather than colder or significantly warmer extremes. Traders appear to weight these consensus projections heavily while assigning low probability to outliers below 11 °C or above 15 °C given stable synoptic conditions and the short lead time to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,792Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble model runs position the lowest temperature in Paris on September 19 near 13–14 °C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 13 °C at 43.5 % and 12 °C at 30 %. Mild southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies is expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minima several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.2 °C. Forecast guidance shows little spread among major models, with dew points and boundary-layer moisture supporting values in the 12–15 °C range rather than colder or significantly warmer extremes. Traders appear to weight these consensus projections heavily while assigning low probability to outliers below 11 °C or above 15 °C given stable synoptic conditions and the short lead time to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,792Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and ensemble model runs position the lowest temperature in Paris on September 19 near 13–14 °C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 13 °C at 43.5 % and 12 °C at 30 %. Mild southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies is expected to limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minima several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.2 °C. Forecast guidance shows little spread among major models, with dew points and boundary-layer moisture supporting values in the 12–15 °C range rather than colder or significantly warmer extremes. Traders appear to weight these consensus projections heavily while assigning low probability to outliers below 11 °C or above 15 °C given stable synoptic conditions and the short lead time to resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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