Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$216,568 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4.6%
95%
4.8%
45%
5.0%
26%
5.2%
11%
5.5%
7%
5.7%
6%
6.0%
4%
$216,568 Wol.
4.6%
$37,797 Wol.
95%
4.8%
$47,611 Wol.
45%
5.0%
$50,065 Wol.
26%
5.2%
$9,852 Wol.
11%
5.5%
$1,471 Wol.
7%
5.7%
$3,229 Wol.
6%
6.0%
$2,152 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$216,568Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Wolumen
$216,568Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI and PPI readings, with producer prices rising 1.4 percent—the fastest pace since March 2022—have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59 percent as of May 15, its highest level in nearly a year amid surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. Market-implied odds now reflect greater inflation persistence, prompting traders to price in potential Federal Reserve rate hikes later in the cycle rather than additional cuts, especially with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Persistent fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance continue to add upward pressure on long-term yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, June FOMC meeting, and any shifts in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory before year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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