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Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

icon for Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?
Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

0 (0 pb) 70.2%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,873,468 Wol.

0 (0 pb) 70.2%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,873,468 Wol.

0 (0 pb)

$4,185,726 Wol.

70%

1 (25 pb)

$1,244,470 Wol.

16%

2 (50 pb)

$1,203,687 Wol.

7%

3 (75 pb)

$1,113,699 Wol.

3%

4 (100 pb)

$1,194,562 Wol.

2%

5 (125 pb)

$1,415,585 Wol.

1%

6 (150 pb)

$2,484,314 Wol.

1%

7 (175 pb)

$1,322,084 Wol.

<1%

8 (200 pb)

$1,726,939 Wol.

<1%

9 (225 pb)

$2,449,424 Wol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$3,115,573 Wol.

<1%

11 (275 pb)

$3,266,344 Wol.

<1%

12+ (300+ pb)

$2,151,069 Wol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from surging energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient April 2026 labor market data showing solid job growth and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have driven the market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.3%. This consensus reflects trader expectations that the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through year-end, prioritizing price stability over easing. Recent shifts by major banks, including BofA pushing its first projected cut to 2027, reinforce the higher-for-longer outlook amid sticky core inflation readings. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and FOMC communications, which could alter rate path expectations if inflation moderates or labor conditions soften unexpectedly.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,873,468
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from surging energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with resilient April 2026 labor market data showing solid job growth and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have driven the market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.3%. This consensus reflects trader expectations that the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through year-end, prioritizing price stability over easing. Recent shifts by major banks, including BofA pushing its first projected cut to 2027, reinforce the higher-for-longer outlook amid sticky core inflation readings. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and FOMC communications, which could alter rate path expectations if inflation moderates or labor conditions soften unexpectedly.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,873,468
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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"Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 13 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "0 (0 pb)" z 70%, za nim "1 (25 pb)" z 16%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 70¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 70% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

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Aby handlować na "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?", przeglądaj 13 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" jest "0 (0 pb)" z 70%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 70% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "1 (25 pb)" z 16%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

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