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Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

icon for Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?
Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

0 (0 pb) 70.2%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,959,625 Wol.

0 (0 pb) 70.2%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,959,625 Wol.

0 (0 pb)

$4,189,467 Wol.

70%

1 (25 pb)

$1,245,194 Wol.

16%

2 (50 pb)

$1,204,668 Wol.

7%

3 (75 pb)

$1,114,221 Wol.

3%

4 (100 pb)

$1,197,695 Wol.

1%

5 (125 pb)

$1,419,217 Wol.

1%

6 (150 pb)

$2,496,750 Wol.

1%

7 (175 pb)

$1,326,648 Wol.

<1%

8 (200 pb)

$1,737,182 Wol.

<1%

9 (225 pb)

$2,457,050 Wol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$3,126,111 Wol.

<1%

11 (275 pb)

$3,276,965 Wol.

<1%

12+ (300+ pb)

$2,168,509 Wol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, positioning the market-implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 at 70.3 percent. With the target range holding steady at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent following the April 2026 meeting and the labor market showing resilience, traders see limited scope for easing this year amid persistent price pressures. This consensus aligns with revised forecasts from major brokerages anticipating a hold through year-end or cuts deferred into 2027, though incoming consumer price index readings, employment data, and subsequent FOMC communications could still introduce volatility if growth slows materially or geopolitical tensions ease.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,959,625
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, positioning the market-implied probability of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 at 70.3 percent. With the target range holding steady at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent following the April 2026 meeting and the labor market showing resilience, traders see limited scope for easing this year amid persistent price pressures. This consensus aligns with revised forecasts from major brokerages anticipating a hold through year-end or cuts deferred into 2027, though incoming consumer price index readings, employment data, and subsequent FOMC communications could still introduce volatility if growth slows materially or geopolitical tensions ease.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,959,625
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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