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Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

icon for Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?
Gospodarka·Biznes

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

0 (0 pb) 70.5%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,921,204 Wol.

0 (0 pb) 70.5%

1 (25 pb) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 pb) 2.7%

Polymarket

$26,921,204 Wol.

0 (0 pb)

$4,188,540 Wol.

71%

1 (25 pb)

$1,244,767 Wol.

16%

2 (50 pb)

$1,204,248 Wol.

7%

3 (75 pb)

$1,113,801 Wol.

3%

4 (100 pb)

$1,196,177 Wol.

1%

5 (125 pb)

$1,417,689 Wol.

1%

6 (150 pb)

$2,489,880 Wol.

1%

7 (175 pb)

$1,324,074 Wol.

<1%

8 (200 pb)

$1,733,248 Wol.

<1%

9 (225 pb)

$2,454,875 Wol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$3,123,377 Wol.

<1%

11 (275 pb)

$3,273,723 Wol.

<1%

12+ (300+ pb)

$2,157,367 Wol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,921,204
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$26,921,204
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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"Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 13 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "0 (0 pb)" z 71%, za nim "1 (25 pb)" z 16%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 71¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 71% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

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Aby handlować na "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?", przeglądaj 13 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" jest "0 (0 pb)" z 71%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 71% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "1 (25 pb)" z 16%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

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