El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward moderate or strong levels, represent the dominant driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season (June–November), inclusive of the three early tropical storms formed so far and zero hurricanes through mid-August. This range aligns closely with the market’s leading 4–6 and 1–3 bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether peak-September conditions will allow a modest uptick or maintain the current lull. Sea-surface temperature anomalies, shear trends from updated model runs, and any late-season steering changes will determine whether totals stay below the long-term average of seven hurricanes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
4-6 46%
1-3 37%
7+ 7%
0 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
0
7%
1-3
37%
4-6
41%
7+
18%
4-6 46%
1-3 37%
7+ 7%
0 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
0
$233 Wol.
7%
1-3
$310 Wol.
37%
4-6
$335 Wol.
41%
7+
$125 Wol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward moderate or strong levels, represent the dominant driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season (June–November), inclusive of the three early tropical storms formed so far and zero hurricanes through mid-August. This range aligns closely with the market’s leading 4–6 and 1–3 bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether peak-September conditions will allow a modest uptick or maintain the current lull. Sea-surface temperature anomalies, shear trends from updated model runs, and any late-season steering changes will determine whether totals stay below the long-term average of seven hurricanes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,002Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward moderate or strong levels, represent the dominant driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season (June–November), inclusive of the three early tropical storms formed so far and zero hurricanes through mid-August. This range aligns closely with the market’s leading 4–6 and 1–3 bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether peak-September conditions will allow a modest uptick or maintain the current lull. Sea-surface temperature anomalies, shear trends from updated model runs, and any late-season steering changes will determine whether totals stay below the long-term average of seven hurricanes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Wolumen
$1,002Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward moderate or strong levels, represent the dominant driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season (June–November), inclusive of the three early tropical storms formed so far and zero hurricanes through mid-August. This range aligns closely with the market’s leading 4–6 and 1–3 bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether peak-September conditions will allow a modest uptick or maintain the current lull. Sea-surface temperature anomalies, shear trends from updated model runs, and any late-season steering changes will determine whether totals stay below the long-term average of seven hurricanes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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