Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier in 2026, has set the baseline for trader expectations. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s announced exit at the end of August and departures among legislative affairs and counsel staff ahead of the November midterms add further momentum, as officials weigh potential Democratic congressional oversight and investigations. The tight spread across one to five additional departures through December reflects uncertainty over whether restructuring will accelerate due to internal pressures or stabilize as the administration adjusts priorities. Scheduled midterm outcomes and any new policy disputes or personal announcements could shift probabilities by clarifying the pace of further exits.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1 28%
4 21.6%
5 21.1%
2 20.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
0
1%
1
30%
2
20%
3
14%
4
22%
5
21%
6
7%
7+
12%
1 28%
4 21.6%
5 21.1%
2 20.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
0
$4,977 Wol.
1%
1
$590 Wol.
30%
2
$425 Wol.
20%
3
$261 Wol.
14%
4
$321 Wol.
22%
5
$358 Wol.
21%
6
$428 Wol.
7%
7+
$1,877 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier in 2026, has set the baseline for trader expectations. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s announced exit at the end of August and departures among legislative affairs and counsel staff ahead of the November midterms add further momentum, as officials weigh potential Democratic congressional oversight and investigations. The tight spread across one to five additional departures through December reflects uncertainty over whether restructuring will accelerate due to internal pressures or stabilize as the administration adjusts priorities. Scheduled midterm outcomes and any new policy disputes or personal announcements could shift probabilities by clarifying the pace of further exits.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,236Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier in 2026, has set the baseline for trader expectations. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s announced exit at the end of August and departures among legislative affairs and counsel staff ahead of the November midterms add further momentum, as officials weigh potential Democratic congressional oversight and investigations. The tight spread across one to five additional departures through December reflects uncertainty over whether restructuring will accelerate due to internal pressures or stabilize as the administration adjusts priorities. Scheduled midterm outcomes and any new policy disputes or personal announcements could shift probabilities by clarifying the pace of further exits.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Wolumen
$9,236Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term, including the firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier in 2026, has set the baseline for trader expectations. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s announced exit at the end of August and departures among legislative affairs and counsel staff ahead of the November midterms add further momentum, as officials weigh potential Democratic congressional oversight and investigations. The tight spread across one to five additional departures through December reflects uncertainty over whether restructuring will accelerate due to internal pressures or stabilize as the administration adjusts priorities. Scheduled midterm outcomes and any new policy disputes or personal announcements could shift probabilities by clarifying the pace of further exits.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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