Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNone before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.3%
$29,025 Wol.
$29,025 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
32%
Chris Wright
5%
Susie Wiles
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
6%
Kelly Loeffler
3%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Sean Duffy
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Doug Collins
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
None before 2027 46.7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 32.5%
Chris Wright 5.0%
Susie Wiles 4.3%
$29,025 Wol.
$29,025 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$5,291 Wol.
47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$9,816 Wol.
32%
Chris Wright
$700 Wol.
5%
Susie Wiles
$3,153 Wol.
4%
Pete Hegseth
$929 Wol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,103 Wol.
6%
Kelly Loeffler
$746 Wol.
3%
Russell T. Vought
$463 Wol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$551 Wol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$403 Wol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$488 Wol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$727 Wol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$476 Wol.
1%
Scott Turner
$341 Wol.
1%
Brooke Rollins
$504 Wol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$468 Wol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$828 Wol.
1%
Doug Collins
$487 Wol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$507 Wol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$508 Wol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$535 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$29,025Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Wolumen
$29,025Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent spring 2026 departures—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and several military leaders amid Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s oversight—have driven elevated cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term compared with prior administrations. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.7%) to no further exits before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after those changes and ahead of the midterms. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., still serving as HHS Secretary and advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, ranks second at 32.5% due to ongoing policy friction and his high public profile. Lower-probability names such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflect fewer reported performance concerns or institutional tensions at present.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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