Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMike Waltz 34.5%
Howard Lutnick 32%
John Ratcliffe 31.5%
Lee Zeldin 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
Mike Waltz
35%
Howard Lutnick
32%
John Ratcliffe
31%
Lee Zeldin
29%
Linda McMahon
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
Jamieson Greer
18%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
25%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Doug Collins
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
2%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
39%
Mike Waltz 34.5%
Howard Lutnick 32%
John Ratcliffe 31.5%
Lee Zeldin 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
Mike Waltz
$126 Wol.
35%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Wol.
32%
John Ratcliffe
$115 Wol.
31%
Lee Zeldin
$132 Wol.
29%
Linda McMahon
$209 Wol.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Wol.
18%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Wol.
18%
None before 2027
$226 Wol.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Wol.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Wol.
25%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Wol.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Wol.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Wol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Wol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Wol.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Wol.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Wol.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Wol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Wol.
-
Doug Burgum
$171 Wol.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Wol.
39%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,607Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,607Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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