SpaceX’s rapid Falcon 9 cadence, driven by ongoing Starlink constellation expansion and first-stage reuse, forms the core driver behind the closely matched 12- and 13-launch outcomes. As of mid-May 2026, multiple Starlink missions from Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, plus the May 15 CRS-34 resupply flight and an upcoming Starship Version 3 test targeted for May 19, have already contributed to the total. Remaining launch windows through late May hinge on weather constraints at both coasts, booster availability, and any range or technical holds, with model consensus favoring continued high-frequency operations. Traders weigh these factors against historical monthly records and the potential for additional rideshare or dedicated payloads to tip the final count.