Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 95.2%, reflecting ironclad official confirmation of Jeffrey Epstein's death by suicide on August 10, 2019, at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, as ruled by the New York City medical examiner following autopsy and supported by DOJ prison records. Recent 2026 disclosures from ongoing Justice Department file releases—including security videos, internal memos, a purported suicide note, and the examiner's explanation for initial hesitation on the ruling—have further solidified this narrative without introducing credible evidence of survival. Persistent online rumors, such as debunked AI-generated images and viral lookalike videos, fail to sway traders amid zero primary-source verification. Scenarios like a verifiable DNA match, eyewitness testimony from officials, or undeniable public appearance before 2027 could shift odds, though structural barriers including burial and institutional finality render them improbable.