Heightened regional tensions stemming from the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz represent the primary driver of trader assessments regarding potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi interceptions. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories through August 31 and a US Embassy alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions from Hezbollah or other proxies. Israeli aviation authorities have stated no current plans for closure, while carriers maintain limited operations amid the volatile security environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$27,005,195 Wol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 31
6%
$27,005,195 Wol.
August 15
$960,247 Wol.
<1%
August 31
$1,021,763 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened regional tensions stemming from the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz represent the primary driver of trader assessments regarding potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi interceptions. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories through August 31 and a US Embassy alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions from Hezbollah or other proxies. Israeli aviation authorities have stated no current plans for closure, while carriers maintain limited operations amid the volatile security environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$27,005,195Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened regional tensions stemming from the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz represent the primary driver of trader assessments regarding potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi interceptions. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories through August 31 and a US Embassy alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions from Hezbollah or other proxies. Israeli aviation authorities have stated no current plans for closure, while carriers maintain limited operations amid the volatile security environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$27,005,195Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened regional tensions stemming from the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz represent the primary driver of trader assessments regarding potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi interceptions. As of mid-August the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, yet EASA advisories through August 31 and a US Embassy alert on August 1 highlight risks of short-notice disruptions from Hezbollah or other proxies. Israeli aviation authorities have stated no current plans for closure, while carriers maintain limited operations amid the volatile security environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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