Amcha Yisrael, launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a crowded right-wing field ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show volatile results for the party, with several placing it at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for seats, including figures around 2.1–2.8% in early September surveys. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have urged consolidation to avoid wasting votes on smaller factions, while Amcha Yisrael draws from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit supporters. This fragmentation and threshold risk support trader positioning of sub-2.5% as the leading outcome, though some post-launch polls project 4+ seats if momentum holds through the final weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano4-5% 38%
2.5-3.25% 37%
3.25-4% 30%
<2.5% 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
45%
2.5-3.25%
37%
3.25-4%
30%
4-5%
38%
5%+
26%
4-5% 38%
2.5-3.25% 37%
3.25-4% 30%
<2.5% 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Wol.
45%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Wol.
37%
3.25-4%
$0 Wol.
30%
4-5%
$0 Wol.
38%
5%+
$0 Wol.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a crowded right-wing field ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show volatile results for the party, with several placing it at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for seats, including figures around 2.1–2.8% in early September surveys. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have urged consolidation to avoid wasting votes on smaller factions, while Amcha Yisrael draws from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit supporters. This fragmentation and threshold risk support trader positioning of sub-2.5% as the leading outcome, though some post-launch polls project 4+ seats if momentum holds through the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$20Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a crowded right-wing field ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show volatile results for the party, with several placing it at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for seats, including figures around 2.1–2.8% in early September surveys. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have urged consolidation to avoid wasting votes on smaller factions, while Amcha Yisrael draws from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit supporters. This fragmentation and threshold risk support trader positioning of sub-2.5% as the leading outcome, though some post-launch polls project 4+ seats if momentum holds through the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Wolumen
$20Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a crowded right-wing field ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show volatile results for the party, with several placing it at or below the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for seats, including figures around 2.1–2.8% in early September surveys. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have urged consolidation to avoid wasting votes on smaller factions, while Amcha Yisrael draws from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit supporters. This fragmentation and threshold risk support trader positioning of sub-2.5% as the leading outcome, though some post-launch polls project 4+ seats if momentum holds through the final weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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