Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) near 6-8 seats, placing its implied vote share in a contested range around the 4.5-7.5% thresholds. The August 2026 agreement to reform the alliance after Balad's prior failure to clear the 3.25% barrier has consolidated Arab support and raised turnout expectations among that electorate, supporting the 7.5%+ outcome favored by traders. At the same time, Ra'am's independent run, competition within the Arab sector, and broader bloc volatility—driven by Yashar gains and Netanyahu coalition weakness—have kept lower-share outcomes viable in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Upcoming list finalization and late-campaign mobilization could widen the gap.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<4.5% 38%
7.5%+ 37%
5.5-6.5% 29%
6.5-7.5% 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
38%
4.5-5.5%
28%
5.5-6.5%
29%
6.5-7.5%
29%
7.5%+
37%
<4.5% 38%
7.5%+ 37%
5.5-6.5% 29%
6.5-7.5% 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$0 Wol.
38%
4.5-5.5%
$0 Wol.
28%
5.5-6.5%
$0 Wol.
29%
6.5-7.5%
$0 Wol.
29%
7.5%+
$0 Wol.
37%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) near 6-8 seats, placing its implied vote share in a contested range around the 4.5-7.5% thresholds. The August 2026 agreement to reform the alliance after Balad's prior failure to clear the 3.25% barrier has consolidated Arab support and raised turnout expectations among that electorate, supporting the 7.5%+ outcome favored by traders. At the same time, Ra'am's independent run, competition within the Arab sector, and broader bloc volatility—driven by Yashar gains and Netanyahu coalition weakness—have kept lower-share outcomes viable in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Upcoming list finalization and late-campaign mobilization could widen the gap.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 27, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) near 6-8 seats, placing its implied vote share in a contested range around the 4.5-7.5% thresholds. The August 2026 agreement to reform the alliance after Balad's prior failure to clear the 3.25% barrier has consolidated Arab support and raised turnout expectations among that electorate, supporting the 7.5%+ outcome favored by traders. At the same time, Ra'am's independent run, competition within the Arab sector, and broader bloc volatility—driven by Yashar gains and Netanyahu coalition weakness—have kept lower-share outcomes viable in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Upcoming list finalization and late-campaign mobilization could widen the gap.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 27, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election project the reunified Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) near 6-8 seats, placing its implied vote share in a contested range around the 4.5-7.5% thresholds. The August 2026 agreement to reform the alliance after Balad's prior failure to clear the 3.25% barrier has consolidated Arab support and raised turnout expectations among that electorate, supporting the 7.5%+ outcome favored by traders. At the same time, Ra'am's independent run, competition within the Arab sector, and broader bloc volatility—driven by Yashar gains and Netanyahu coalition weakness—have kept lower-share outcomes viable in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Upcoming list finalization and late-campaign mobilization could widen the gap.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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