**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 19?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$20,099 Wol.
$20,099 Wol.
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$20,099 Wol.
$20,099 Wol.
Sep 19, 2026
21°C or below
$41 Wol.
No
22°C
$31 Wol.
No
23°C
$46 Wol.
No
24°C
$117 Wol.
No
25°C
$2,570 Wol.
No
26°C
$3,069 Wol.
No
27°C
$9,621 Wol.
Yes
28°C
$2,282 Wol.
No
29°C
$41 Wol.
No
30°C
$1,143 Wol.
No
31°C or higher
$1,137 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$20,099Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$20,099Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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