Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate Miami overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s on August 14, aligning with trader emphasis on the closely matched 80-81°F and 82-83°F outcomes. In subtropical South Florida during peak summer, the daily minimum temperature occurs near dawn under mostly clear skies with light easterly winds, where high dew points near 75°F and urban heat retention limit radiational cooling. Minor differences between these bins hinge on subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and sea-breeze timing that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Historical August averages place Miami lows near 78°F, but current conditions and model consensus support the market-implied clustering around 80–83°F.