**Elevated overnight lows driven by an advancing heatwave and southerly warm-air advection are positioning 18–20 °C as the dominant outcomes for Paris’s minimum temperature on 18 June 2026.** Météo-France guidance and recent model consensus indicate the arrival of a hot air mass from the south, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime maxima are projected to reach 36 °C on the 18th, keeping the boundary layer warmer than climatology and supporting minimums clustered around 18–20 °C—well above the historical mid-June average low of ~13–14 °C. Traders have priced the 18 °C outcome highest (42.5 % implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this value, with only small downside risk if slightly stronger winds or a brief cloud deck develop. Higher probabilities for 19–20 °C reflect the ongoing intensification of the ridge and the limited time remaining for cooler scenarios to materialize before the 18th. Key upcoming catalysts include the next Météo-France and ECMWF model runs, which will refine the exact minimum and any last adjustments to wind or cloud forecasts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on June 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on June 18?
18°C 43%
19°C 26%
20°C 16%
17°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
9%
18°C
43%
19°C
26%
20°C
16%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
18°C 43%
19°C 26%
20°C 16%
17°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 18, 2026
13°C or below
$15 Wol.
<1%
14°C
$151 Wol.
1%
15°C
$20 Wol.
1%
16°C
$16 Wol.
3%
17°C
$20 Wol.
9%
18°C
$171 Wol.
43%
19°C
$213 Wol.
26%
20°C
$99 Wol.
16%
21°C
$103 Wol.
1%
22°C
$110 Wol.
1%
23°C or higher
$550 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Elevated overnight lows driven by an advancing heatwave and southerly warm-air advection are positioning 18–20 °C as the dominant outcomes for Paris’s minimum temperature on 18 June 2026.**
Météo-France guidance and recent model consensus indicate the arrival of a hot air mass from the south, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime maxima are projected to reach 36 °C on the 18th, keeping the boundary layer warmer than climatology and supporting minimums clustered around 18–20 °C—well above the historical mid-June average low of ~13–14 °C.
Traders have priced the 18 °C outcome highest (42.5 % implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this value, with only small downside risk if slightly stronger winds or a brief cloud deck develop. Higher probabilities for 19–20 °C reflect the ongoing intensification of the ridge and the limited time remaining for cooler scenarios to materialize before the 18th.
Key upcoming catalysts include the next Météo-France and ECMWF model runs, which will refine the exact minimum and any last adjustments to wind or cloud forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,468Data zakończenia
Jun 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Elevated overnight lows driven by an advancing heatwave and southerly warm-air advection are positioning 18–20 °C as the dominant outcomes for Paris’s minimum temperature on 18 June 2026.**
Météo-France guidance and recent model consensus indicate the arrival of a hot air mass from the south, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime maxima are projected to reach 36 °C on the 18th, keeping the boundary layer warmer than climatology and supporting minimums clustered around 18–20 °C—well above the historical mid-June average low of ~13–14 °C.
Traders have priced the 18 °C outcome highest (42.5 % implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this value, with only small downside risk if slightly stronger winds or a brief cloud deck develop. Higher probabilities for 19–20 °C reflect the ongoing intensification of the ridge and the limited time remaining for cooler scenarios to materialize before the 18th.
Key upcoming catalysts include the next Météo-France and ECMWF model runs, which will refine the exact minimum and any last adjustments to wind or cloud forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,468Data zakończenia
Jun 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated overnight lows driven by an advancing heatwave and southerly warm-air advection are positioning 18–20 °C as the dominant outcomes for Paris’s minimum temperature on 18 June 2026.** Météo-France guidance and recent model consensus indicate the arrival of a hot air mass from the south, with clear skies and light winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime maxima are projected to reach 36 °C on the 18th, keeping the boundary layer warmer than climatology and supporting minimums clustered around 18–20 °C—well above the historical mid-June average low of ~13–14 °C. Traders have priced the 18 °C outcome highest (42.5 % implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this value, with only small downside risk if slightly stronger winds or a brief cloud deck develop. Higher probabilities for 19–20 °C reflect the ongoing intensification of the ridge and the limited time remaining for cooler scenarios to materialize before the 18th. Key upcoming catalysts include the next Météo-France and ECMWF model runs, which will refine the exact minimum and any last adjustments to wind or cloud forecasts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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