Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Paris minimum temperatures on September 6 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market's tight clustering around 12°C and 13°C implied probabilities. Clear nocturnal conditions promote radiative cooling toward the historical September average low of 12.6°C, while any increase in cloud cover or southeasterly flow could limit the drop. Model spreads remain modest given the short lead time, with new high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected to refine the exact threshold before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty rather than any single outlier scenario.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
13°C 41%
12°C 38%
15°C 20%
16°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
10%
11°C
18%
12°C
38%
13°C
41%
14°C
16%
15°C
20%
16°C
19%
17°C
19%
18°C
17%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
8%
13°C 41%
12°C 38%
15°C 20%
16°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Wol.
10%
11°C
$0 Wol.
18%
12°C
$353 Wol.
38%
13°C
$94 Wol.
41%
14°C
$0 Wol.
16%
15°C
$0 Wol.
20%
16°C
$0 Wol.
19%
17°C
$0 Wol.
19%
18°C
$0 Wol.
17%
19°C
$0 Wol.
2%
20°C or higher
$6 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Paris minimum temperatures on September 6 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market's tight clustering around 12°C and 13°C implied probabilities. Clear nocturnal conditions promote radiative cooling toward the historical September average low of 12.6°C, while any increase in cloud cover or southeasterly flow could limit the drop. Model spreads remain modest given the short lead time, with new high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected to refine the exact threshold before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty rather than any single outlier scenario.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$458Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Paris minimum temperatures on September 6 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market's tight clustering around 12°C and 13°C implied probabilities. Clear nocturnal conditions promote radiative cooling toward the historical September average low of 12.6°C, while any increase in cloud cover or southeasterly flow could limit the drop. Model spreads remain modest given the short lead time, with new high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected to refine the exact threshold before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty rather than any single outlier scenario.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$458Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Paris minimum temperatures on September 6 will likely fall between 12–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light variable winds, supporting the market's tight clustering around 12°C and 13°C implied probabilities. Clear nocturnal conditions promote radiative cooling toward the historical September average low of 12.6°C, while any increase in cloud cover or southeasterly flow could limit the drop. Model spreads remain modest given the short lead time, with new high-resolution runs and Météo-France updates expected to refine the exact threshold before resolution. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty rather than any single outlier scenario.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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