Current forecast models point to a daily minimum near 12–14°C in Warsaw on September 15, shaped by light variable winds, high humidity near the surface, and variable overnight cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. European and U.S. model runs show modest disagreement on the timing and extent of clearing skies, which can alter the low by 2–3°C through changes in longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. This uncertainty, combined with typical early-September variability around the 10°C climatological baseline, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 10–13°C range while assigning lower odds to extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
7°C or below 90%
17°C or higher 44%
15°C 37%
11°C 32%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
7°C or below
90%
8°C
18%
9°C
7%
10°C
26%
11°C
32%
12°C
25%
13°C
20%
14°C
18%
15°C
37%
16°C
17%
17°C or higher
44%
7°C or below 90%
17°C or higher 44%
15°C 37%
11°C 32%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
7°C or below
$67 Wol.
90%
8°C
$10 Wol.
18%
9°C
$0 Wol.
7%
10°C
$0 Wol.
26%
11°C
$0 Wol.
32%
12°C
$0 Wol.
25%
13°C
$0 Wol.
20%
14°C
$0 Wol.
18%
15°C
$10 Wol.
37%
16°C
$10 Wol.
17%
17°C or higher
$10 Wol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models point to a daily minimum near 12–14°C in Warsaw on September 15, shaped by light variable winds, high humidity near the surface, and variable overnight cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. European and U.S. model runs show modest disagreement on the timing and extent of clearing skies, which can alter the low by 2–3°C through changes in longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. This uncertainty, combined with typical early-September variability around the 10°C climatological baseline, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 10–13°C range while assigning lower odds to extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Wolumen
$107Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models point to a daily minimum near 12–14°C in Warsaw on September 15, shaped by light variable winds, high humidity near the surface, and variable overnight cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. European and U.S. model runs show modest disagreement on the timing and extent of clearing skies, which can alter the low by 2–3°C through changes in longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. This uncertainty, combined with typical early-September variability around the 10°C climatological baseline, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 10–13°C range while assigning lower odds to extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$107Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models point to a daily minimum near 12–14°C in Warsaw on September 15, shaped by light variable winds, high humidity near the surface, and variable overnight cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. European and U.S. model runs show modest disagreement on the timing and extent of clearing skies, which can alter the low by 2–3°C through changes in longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. This uncertainty, combined with typical early-September variability around the 10°C climatological baseline, supports the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 10–13°C range while assigning lower odds to extremes below 8°C or above 16°C. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 24 hours remain the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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