Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 13–15°C in Warsaw on September 14. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with closely matched market-implied odds for 13°C (29.5%) and 14°C (27.5%) outcomes amid modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. A secondary cluster at 19°C or higher (30.0%) likely incorporates tail risks from forecast revisions or localized variations, while lower probabilities for 12°C or below align with climatological September baselines around 10°C but current warmer anomalies. Updated model runs overnight and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
19°C or higher 68%
12°C 40%
16°C 39%
13°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
18%
11°C
10%
12°C
40%
13°C
28%
14°C
27%
15°C
5%
16°C
39%
17°C
17%
18°C
13%
19°C or higher
68%
19°C or higher 68%
12°C 40%
16°C 39%
13°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
$125 Wol.
1%
10°C
$40 Wol.
18%
11°C
$76 Wol.
10%
12°C
$0 Wol.
40%
13°C
$0 Wol.
28%
14°C
$0 Wol.
27%
15°C
$187 Wol.
5%
16°C
$0 Wol.
39%
17°C
$0 Wol.
17%
18°C
$0 Wol.
13%
19°C or higher
$0 Wol.
68%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 13–15°C in Warsaw on September 14. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with closely matched market-implied odds for 13°C (29.5%) and 14°C (27.5%) outcomes amid modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. A secondary cluster at 19°C or higher (30.0%) likely incorporates tail risks from forecast revisions or localized variations, while lower probabilities for 12°C or below align with climatological September baselines around 10°C but current warmer anomalies. Updated model runs overnight and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$428Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 13–15°C in Warsaw on September 14. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with closely matched market-implied odds for 13°C (29.5%) and 14°C (27.5%) outcomes amid modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. A secondary cluster at 19°C or higher (30.0%) likely incorporates tail risks from forecast revisions or localized variations, while lower probabilities for 12°C or below align with climatological September baselines around 10°C but current warmer anomalies. Updated model runs overnight and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$428Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, supporting minimum temperatures near 13–15°C in Warsaw on September 14. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range, with closely matched market-implied odds for 13°C (29.5%) and 14°C (27.5%) outcomes amid modest model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. A secondary cluster at 19°C or higher (30.0%) likely incorporates tail risks from forecast revisions or localized variations, while lower probabilities for 12°C or below align with climatological September baselines around 10°C but current warmer anomalies. Updated model runs overnight and official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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