Recent April CPI data showing a 0.6% month-over-month headline increase and 3.8% annual rate—the highest since 2023—driven by energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock has anchored trader expectations for May around similar levels. With 0.5% and 0.6% outcomes holding nearly equal implied probabilities, markets are pricing in a balance between persistent gasoline and energy pass-through effects and potential moderation if crude prices stabilize near current levels. Core measures edged higher last month at 0.4% MoM, underscoring services and shelter contributions, while upcoming May data release will test whether the sequential cooling from March's 0.9% print continues. This tight contest highlights sensitivity to near-term commodity trends and labor market conditions ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMay Inflation US - Monthly
0.6% 42%
0.5% 38%
0.4% 13%
0.3% 9.8%
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
7%
0.3%
12%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
38%
0.6%
31%
0.7%
8%
0.8%
4%
≥0.9%
8%
0.6% 42%
0.5% 38%
0.4% 13%
0.3% 9.8%
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
7%
0.3%
12%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
38%
0.6%
31%
0.7%
8%
0.8%
4%
≥0.9%
8%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data showing a 0.6% month-over-month headline increase and 3.8% annual rate—the highest since 2023—driven by energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock has anchored trader expectations for May around similar levels. With 0.5% and 0.6% outcomes holding nearly equal implied probabilities, markets are pricing in a balance between persistent gasoline and energy pass-through effects and potential moderation if crude prices stabilize near current levels. Core measures edged higher last month at 0.4% MoM, underscoring services and shelter contributions, while upcoming May data release will test whether the sequential cooling from March's 0.9% print continues. This tight contest highlights sensitivity to near-term commodity trends and labor market conditions ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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