Micah Lasher’s June 2026 Democratic primary victory, backed by retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and strong West Side institutional support, positions the Democratic nominee for an overwhelming general-election advantage in New York’s 12th District. The Manhattan-based seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic for November 3, 2026. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces limited resources and structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Trader consensus at 97.6% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns, though late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political shock could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,659 Wol.
$32,659 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$32,659 Wol.
$32,659 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,205 Wol.
98%
Republican Party
$15,454 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher’s June 2026 Democratic primary victory, backed by retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and strong West Side institutional support, positions the Democratic nominee for an overwhelming general-election advantage in New York’s 12th District. The Manhattan-based seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic for November 3, 2026. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces limited resources and structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Trader consensus at 97.6% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns, though late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political shock could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$32,659Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher’s June 2026 Democratic primary victory, backed by retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and strong West Side institutional support, positions the Democratic nominee for an overwhelming general-election advantage in New York’s 12th District. The Manhattan-based seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic for November 3, 2026. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces limited resources and structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Trader consensus at 97.6% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns, though late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political shock could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$32,659Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher’s June 2026 Democratic primary victory, backed by retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and strong West Side institutional support, positions the Democratic nominee for an overwhelming general-election advantage in New York’s 12th District. The Manhattan-based seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 60 points in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic for November 3, 2026. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle faces limited resources and structural barriers in a district where Democratic registration and turnout dominate. Trader consensus at 97.6% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns, though late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political shock could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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