Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoVA-03 House Election Winner
VA-03 House Election Winner
$35,417 Wol.
$35,417 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$35,417 Wol.
$35,417 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,073 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$15,345 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$35,417Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$35,417Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's reelection bid in a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index district where he won 70% in 2024. The absence of any Republican primary candidates ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries underscores structural barriers, with independents showing negligible fundraising. April's voter-approved mid-decade redistricting, though facing court challenges, preserved VA-03's safe Democratic status per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating. Upsets could arise from a late, well-funded GOP entrant, a Scott scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave, though none appear imminent before the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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