OpenAI’s internal tensions around a potential 2026 IPO have intensified after CFO Sarah Friar described the fourth-quarter target as overly aggressive, creating friction with CEO Sam Altman amid revenue shortfalls and ballooning infrastructure costs. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation underscores strong private-market interest in its large language models, yet mounting losses projected for the year and unresolved litigation continue to cloud the path to public listing. Traders appear to view these execution risks and timeline slippage signals as outweighing earlier groundwork laid in late 2025, keeping the probability of no IPO by year-end elevated while assigning lower odds to higher closing market-cap outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLimit rynkowy zamknięcia IPO OpenAI
Limit rynkowy zamknięcia IPO OpenAI
Brak IPO do 31 grudnia 2026 roku 69%
1,5 bln+ 8.9%
1,25–1,5 bln 3.7%
500–750 mld 3.5%
$1,638,925 Wol.
$1,638,925 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500 mld
1%
500–750 mld
3%
750 mld–1 bln
2%
1 bln–1,25 bln
3%
1,25–1,5 bln
4%
1,5 bln+
9%
Brak IPO do 31 grudnia 2026 roku
69%
Brak IPO do 31 grudnia 2026 roku 69%
1,5 bln+ 8.9%
1,25–1,5 bln 3.7%
500–750 mld 3.5%
$1,638,925 Wol.
$1,638,925 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500 mld
$266,170 Wol.
1%
500–750 mld
$146,331 Wol.
3%
750 mld–1 bln
$141,047 Wol.
2%
1 bln–1,25 bln
$182,630 Wol.
3%
1,25–1,5 bln
$496,527 Wol.
4%
1,5 bln+
$101,032 Wol.
9%
Brak IPO do 31 grudnia 2026 roku
$305,188 Wol.
69%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s internal tensions around a potential 2026 IPO have intensified after CFO Sarah Friar described the fourth-quarter target as overly aggressive, creating friction with CEO Sam Altman amid revenue shortfalls and ballooning infrastructure costs. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation underscores strong private-market interest in its large language models, yet mounting losses projected for the year and unresolved litigation continue to cloud the path to public listing. Traders appear to view these execution risks and timeline slippage signals as outweighing earlier groundwork laid in late 2025, keeping the probability of no IPO by year-end elevated while assigning lower odds to higher closing market-cap outcomes.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,638,925Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s internal tensions around a potential 2026 IPO have intensified after CFO Sarah Friar described the fourth-quarter target as overly aggressive, creating friction with CEO Sam Altman amid revenue shortfalls and ballooning infrastructure costs. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation underscores strong private-market interest in its large language models, yet mounting losses projected for the year and unresolved litigation continue to cloud the path to public listing. Traders appear to view these execution risks and timeline slippage signals as outweighing earlier groundwork laid in late 2025, keeping the probability of no IPO by year-end elevated while assigning lower odds to higher closing market-cap outcomes.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Wolumen
$1,638,925Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s internal tensions around a potential 2026 IPO have intensified after CFO Sarah Friar described the fourth-quarter target as overly aggressive, creating friction with CEO Sam Altman amid revenue shortfalls and ballooning infrastructure costs. The company’s March 2026 funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation underscores strong private-market interest in its large language models, yet mounting losses projected for the year and unresolved litigation continue to cloud the path to public listing. Traders appear to view these execution risks and timeline slippage signals as outweighing earlier groundwork laid in late 2025, keeping the probability of no IPO by year-end elevated while assigning lower odds to higher closing market-cap outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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