The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
0.4–0.5% 100.0%
Negative <1%
0.0–0.1% <1%
0.2–0.3% <1%
$35,535 Wol.
$35,535 Wol.
Aug 12, 2026
Negative
No
0.0–0.1%
No
0.2–0.3%
No
0.4–0.5%
Yes
0.6–0.7%
No
0.8–0.9%
No
1.0%+
No
0.4–0.5% 100.0%
Negative <1%
0.0–0.1% <1%
0.2–0.3% <1%
$35,535 Wol.
$35,535 Wol.
Aug 12, 2026
Negative
$3,943 Wol.
No
0.0–0.1%
$1,537 Wol.
No
0.2–0.3%
$14,933 Wol.
No
0.4–0.5%
$6,001 Wol.
Yes
0.6–0.7%
$4,389 Wol.
No
0.8–0.9%
$4,121 Wol.
No
1.0%+
$610 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$35,535Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$35,535Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
The primary catalyst anchoring near-certain trader consensus on 0.4–0.5% UK GDP growth QoQ for Q2 2026 is the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate released August 13, confirming exactly 0.4% expansion, in line with economist forecasts after the 0.6% Q1 print. Services and consumer spending momentum, alongside stable labor market conditions, supported the outcome and aligned market-implied odds with the realized figure. While the preliminary release carries typical revision risk in subsequent quarterly national accounts, any material shift outside the 0.4–0.5% band would require substantial data adjustments not signaled in leading monthly indicators or consensus estimates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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