Trader consensus on the low likelihood of U.S. federal charges against sitting Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stems from the Department of Justice’s current focus on former leader Raúl Castro and regime-linked entities rather than the incumbent. Recent developments include preparations for an indictment of Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue incident, alongside new sanctions targeting Cuba’s military conglomerate GAESA. Díaz-Canel has engaged in bilateral talks with U.S. officials, publicly accepted offers of humanitarian aid, and maintained a visible diplomatic profile without triggering prosecutorial signals. Substantial jurisdictional and diplomatic barriers protect sitting heads of state, and no Department of Justice announcements or court filings have named Díaz-Canel through mid-May 2026. With the market resolving by June 30, these patterns reinforce expectations that pressure will remain channeled through sanctions and legacy cases instead of direct criminal proceedings against the current president.