Recent polling has created uncertainty around the Vermont gubernatorial contest between five-term Republican incumbent Phil Scott and Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo. A late-September University of New Hampshire survey showed Janoo ahead 49-43 among likely voters in what analysts called a statistical tie, while a Vermont Public poll days later found Scott leading 44-34 with 16 percent undecided. These swings from earlier wider margins reflect Janoo’s primary momentum and Scott’s approval rating decline, keeping the race closer than historical patterns for the popular incumbent. Trader consensus on even win odds and heavy weighting toward single-digit Republican margins aligns with this volatility and the potential for late shifts before the November 3 vote.