The Xi-Trump summit in mid-May 2026 highlighted Beijing’s continued emphasis on the Taiwan issue as central to U.S.-China relations without triggering new military escalations or invasion preparations. Ongoing PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait remain at normalized levels of air incursions and coast guard patrols rather than the massed amphibious exercises or blockade drills that would signal imminent large-scale action. Taiwan’s recent passage of a supplemental defense budget and sustained U.S. arms support further reinforce deterrence in the narrow window before June 30. Traders assign 98.7 percent probability to no invasion by that date because the six-week timeframe leaves insufficient time for the extensive logistical mobilization required for cross-strait operations. Sudden diplomatic miscalculation or an unplanned incident could still shift assessments, though current evidence points to steady coercion rather than kinetic escalation.