President Trump has floated proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the 2026 midterms, yet no legislation altering the core long-term capital gains rates has advanced through Congress since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended many 2017 TCJA provisions in 2025. With midterms looming in November and limited legislative calendar remaining, enacting a statutory rate reduction before 2027 faces significant procedural and timing barriers. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% “No” probability aligns with historical patterns where broad capital-gains changes require extended negotiations and reliable vote counts that have not materialized here.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano17% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
17% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump has floated proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the 2026 midterms, yet no legislation altering the core long-term capital gains rates has advanced through Congress since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended many 2017 TCJA provisions in 2025. With midterms looming in November and limited legislative calendar remaining, enacting a statutory rate reduction before 2027 faces significant procedural and timing barriers. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% “No” probability aligns with historical patterns where broad capital-gains changes require extended negotiations and reliable vote counts that have not materialized here.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,141Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump has floated proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the 2026 midterms, yet no legislation altering the core long-term capital gains rates has advanced through Congress since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended many 2017 TCJA provisions in 2025. With midterms looming in November and limited legislative calendar remaining, enacting a statutory rate reduction before 2027 faces significant procedural and timing barriers. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% “No” probability aligns with historical patterns where broad capital-gains changes require extended negotiations and reliable vote counts that have not materialized here.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$2,141Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump has floated proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the 2026 midterms, yet no legislation altering the core long-term capital gains rates has advanced through Congress since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended many 2017 TCJA provisions in 2025. With midterms looming in November and limited legislative calendar remaining, enacting a statutory rate reduction before 2027 faces significant procedural and timing barriers. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% “No” probability aligns with historical patterns where broad capital-gains changes require extended negotiations and reliable vote counts that have not materialized here.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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