Trump administration officials have recently discussed proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but these remain preliminary ideas floated by aides rather than active legislation. Major changes to long-term capital gains rates require congressional passage through regular order or reconciliation, a process slowed by competing priorities, narrow majorities, and the compressed calendar before voters decide control of Congress. No bills advancing rate reductions have advanced in either chamber as of mid-August 2026, and historical patterns show comprehensive tax reform typically spans multiple sessions. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing swift enactment before 2027 as improbable absent unexpected bipartisan momentum or a late-session surprise.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano16% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
16% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump administration officials have recently discussed proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but these remain preliminary ideas floated by aides rather than active legislation. Major changes to long-term capital gains rates require congressional passage through regular order or reconciliation, a process slowed by competing priorities, narrow majorities, and the compressed calendar before voters decide control of Congress. No bills advancing rate reductions have advanced in either chamber as of mid-August 2026, and historical patterns show comprehensive tax reform typically spans multiple sessions. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing swift enactment before 2027 as improbable absent unexpected bipartisan momentum or a late-session surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,141Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump administration officials have recently discussed proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but these remain preliminary ideas floated by aides rather than active legislation. Major changes to long-term capital gains rates require congressional passage through regular order or reconciliation, a process slowed by competing priorities, narrow majorities, and the compressed calendar before voters decide control of Congress. No bills advancing rate reductions have advanced in either chamber as of mid-August 2026, and historical patterns show comprehensive tax reform typically spans multiple sessions. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing swift enactment before 2027 as improbable absent unexpected bipartisan momentum or a late-session surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$2,141Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration officials have recently discussed proposals to index capital gains to inflation or expand home-sale exemptions ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but these remain preliminary ideas floated by aides rather than active legislation. Major changes to long-term capital gains rates require congressional passage through regular order or reconciliation, a process slowed by competing priorities, narrow majorities, and the compressed calendar before voters decide control of Congress. No bills advancing rate reductions have advanced in either chamber as of mid-August 2026, and historical patterns show comprehensive tax reform typically spans multiple sessions. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing swift enactment before 2027 as improbable absent unexpected bipartisan momentum or a late-session surprise.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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