US statehood for any territory requires congressional legislation, presidential approval, and often local consent under Article IV of the Constitution, none of which applies to the independent nation of Venezuela. Recent comments from President Trump referencing the idea, including social media posts in March and May 2026, have drawn official rejection from Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez and produced no legislative activity or bilateral negotiations. Traders assign 97.7% probability to “No” because these structural and diplomatic barriers remain unchanged, though improbable developments such as formal annexation proposals, altered Venezuelan leadership positions, or congressional action could theoretically shift the market.