Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has shifted trader consensus toward a 2028 or later timeline for any true Apple Vision Pro successor, after Apple paused major headset redesigns to focus on lighter AI smart glasses. The company released only an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro in October 2025, with no active development or production signals for a next-generation model that could reach market by December 2026. This aligns with historical Apple product cycles that often slip on complex spatial computing hardware and prioritizes verified supply chain and engineering updates over earlier speculation. While a surprise announcement or accelerated pivot remains possible given Apple's resources, the absence of credible leaks or component sourcing for a 2026 launch underpins the market-implied 94.5% probability on "No."
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoApple Vision Pro 2 lançado antes de 2027?
Apple Vision Pro 2 lançado antes de 2027?
Sim
6% chance
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
Sim
6% chance
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has shifted trader consensus toward a 2028 or later timeline for any true Apple Vision Pro successor, after Apple paused major headset redesigns to focus on lighter AI smart glasses. The company released only an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro in October 2025, with no active development or production signals for a next-generation model that could reach market by December 2026. This aligns with historical Apple product cycles that often slip on complex spatial computing hardware and prioritizes verified supply chain and engineering updates over earlier speculation. While a surprise announcement or accelerated pivot remains possible given Apple's resources, the absence of credible leaks or component sourcing for a 2026 launch underpins the market-implied 94.5% probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,998Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has shifted trader consensus toward a 2028 or later timeline for any true Apple Vision Pro successor, after Apple paused major headset redesigns to focus on lighter AI smart glasses. The company released only an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro in October 2025, with no active development or production signals for a next-generation model that could reach market by December 2026. This aligns with historical Apple product cycles that often slip on complex spatial computing hardware and prioritizes verified supply chain and engineering updates over earlier speculation. While a surprise announcement or accelerated pivot remains possible given Apple's resources, the absence of credible leaks or component sourcing for a 2026 launch underpins the market-implied 94.5% probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,998Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman has shifted trader consensus toward a 2028 or later timeline for any true Apple Vision Pro successor, after Apple paused major headset redesigns to focus on lighter AI smart glasses. The company released only an M5 chip refresh to the original Vision Pro in October 2025, with no active development or production signals for a next-generation model that could reach market by December 2026. This aligns with historical Apple product cycles that often slip on complex spatial computing hardware and prioritizes verified supply chain and engineering updates over earlier speculation. While a surprise announcement or accelerated pivot remains possible given Apple's resources, the absence of credible leaks or component sourcing for a 2026 launch underpins the market-implied 94.5% probability on "No."
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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