Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone, combined with no announced shifts in strategy or major supply chain disruptions, underpins the overwhelming 98.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company's hardware roadmap, including iterative improvements in processors, cameras, and AI features, as highly predictable based on prior cycles and official statements. While near-certain consensus reflects strong historical precedent, realistic tail risks remain, such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, severe semiconductor shortages, or internal delays from ambitious new components that could push the launch into early 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
98% chance
$173,077 Vol.
$173,077 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
98% chance
$173,077 Vol.
$173,077 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone, combined with no announced shifts in strategy or major supply chain disruptions, underpins the overwhelming 98.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company's hardware roadmap, including iterative improvements in processors, cameras, and AI features, as highly predictable based on prior cycles and official statements. While near-certain consensus reflects strong historical precedent, realistic tail risks remain, such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, severe semiconductor shortages, or internal delays from ambitious new components that could push the launch into early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,077Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone, combined with no announced shifts in strategy or major supply chain disruptions, underpins the overwhelming 98.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company's hardware roadmap, including iterative improvements in processors, cameras, and AI features, as highly predictable based on prior cycles and official statements. While near-certain consensus reflects strong historical precedent, realistic tail risks remain, such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, severe semiconductor shortages, or internal delays from ambitious new components that could push the launch into early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,077Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone, combined with no announced shifts in strategy or major supply chain disruptions, underpins the overwhelming 98.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company's hardware roadmap, including iterative improvements in processors, cameras, and AI features, as highly predictable based on prior cycles and official statements. While near-certain consensus reflects strong historical precedent, realistic tail risks remain, such as unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets, severe semiconductor shortages, or internal delays from ambitious new components that could push the launch into early 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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