Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a 2026 release, with multiple credible reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the first foldable iPhone are slated for a September 2026 launch alongside iOS updates. Recent supply-chain and beta leaks reinforce this timeline for premium models, while any delay to the base iPhone 18 or 18e variants into spring 2027 does not alter the overall series release window. Trader consensus reflects Apple’s track record of on-schedule hardware launches despite occasional feature or model adjustments. Realistic risks that could still shift the outcome remain limited but include major component shortages forcing broader postponements or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
98% chance
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
98% chance
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a 2026 release, with multiple credible reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the first foldable iPhone are slated for a September 2026 launch alongside iOS updates. Recent supply-chain and beta leaks reinforce this timeline for premium models, while any delay to the base iPhone 18 or 18e variants into spring 2027 does not alter the overall series release window. Trader consensus reflects Apple’s track record of on-schedule hardware launches despite occasional feature or model adjustments. Realistic risks that could still shift the outcome remain limited but include major component shortages forcing broader postponements or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$172,877Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a 2026 release, with multiple credible reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the first foldable iPhone are slated for a September 2026 launch alongside iOS updates. Recent supply-chain and beta leaks reinforce this timeline for premium models, while any delay to the base iPhone 18 or 18e variants into spring 2027 does not alter the overall series release window. Trader consensus reflects Apple’s track record of on-schedule hardware launches despite occasional feature or model adjustments. Realistic risks that could still shift the outcome remain limited but include major component shortages forcing broader postponements or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$172,877Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-standing annual cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 98.3% market-implied odds for a 2026 release, with multiple credible reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the first foldable iPhone are slated for a September 2026 launch alongside iOS updates. Recent supply-chain and beta leaks reinforce this timeline for premium models, while any delay to the base iPhone 18 or 18e variants into spring 2027 does not alter the overall series release window. Trader consensus reflects Apple’s track record of on-schedule hardware launches despite occasional feature or model adjustments. Realistic risks that could still shift the outcome remain limited but include major component shortages forcing broader postponements or unexpected regulatory hurdles in key markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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